Tuesday, December 20, 2011

What will T-Mobile Do?

So AT&T is going to give up on T-Mobile.  Most commentators seem to describe this as a bad outcome for T-Mobile.  What does the poor 4th place wireless vendor do?

The most important thing is to realize that T-Mobile is not going to grow its business into being the #2 or #1 network.  And if T-Mobile competes head on, it's going to fail: it can't offer the same products and services just with a worse network.

Instead, T-Mobile needs to skate to where the puck will be.  And where the puck will be is data.  All data, all the time.  GSM voice is a 90s technology.  People like Republic Wireless are leading the move away from segregated voice vs. data.  But Republic Wireless' weakness is that it doesn't own a 3G or 4G network or have WiFi hotspots.

T-Mobile, you're already big in the wireless hotspot game.  Keep it up.  Get in as many locations as possible.  Buy Republic Wireless with that $3 billion in go-away money and make their devices work seamlessly at your hotspots.  Figure out where a core clientele spends its time, provide WiFi there, bridge the gaps with 3G, and you have a truly unique offering.  People like unique.  People like avant-garde.

Pick up Twilio and a few other internet telephony start ups too -- and focus on making T-Mobile the platform of choice for inventors and entrepreneurs.  Soon, all sorts of cool apps will land on T-Mobile, and people will want to use your service for all the things it does.

So much better than being the #4 carrier losing at playing catch up.