Real numbers for smart phones

I read a lot about mobile platforms, and there seems to be a constant battle for bragging rights between the iOS and Android platforms.   There's a lot of talk about how activation rates for Android phones are so much higher than for iOS, and therefore that iOS devices have a relatively smaller market share.

The follow on argument from the Apple boosters is that, well, Apple is smaller but they have all the profits.

But is Apple really the smaller vendor?  I was browsing through a report from the Pew Research center (see the report here), and it said that of smart phone users surveyed:

• 20% of cell owners now describe their phone as an Android device, up from 15% in May 2011
• 19% of cell owners now describe their phone as an iPhone, up from 10% in May 2011
• 6% of cell owners now describe the phone as a Blackberry, down from 10% in May 2011

Statistically, then, Android and iOS are tied. (Note that 45% of all cell phone owners say they own a smartphone, so there's nobody missing from those percentages).

What's even more interesting is that Android users are up 5% in about a year, but iPhone users are up 9%.  That seems terribly at odds with the conventional wisdom about adoption (like at business insider).

I have a couple of thoughts on the subject:

• iOS has a good head start
• Apple has a stronger support for keeping 1 and 2 generation old devices up to date with software.  If you have a 3GS, you are still able to get iOS 5.  Android, on the other hand, tends to orphan devices fairly quickly.  So people may stay on an iOS device longer than people on Android devices, resulting in a longer in-service life for iPhones.
• Similarly, the fact that a few years old iPhone is still able to run current software means that it has value in the used market.  An old and out of date Android device is not going to look attractive compared to getting a new one from the carrier.
• How many people get an Android and switch to iPhone later?

Because of these, I suspect there's a lot of retired yet fairly modern Android phones out there.  And that's why a random survey of what people actually use shows the iPhone still holding even with Android.